Shake-up in Lineup Not Enough to Derail Offense in Win Over T-Men

A slew of small trades in the preceding week compounded with the injury-induced absences of Martin Straka, Pierre Dagenais and Tomas Zizka forced Aviator coach Richard Farley to drop a bomb on the lineup, completely reorganizing who received playing time and how much time they received. The resulting lineup saw seasonal non-contributors Taylor Pyatt, Matt Pettinger, Brian Willsie, and Michael Nylander teamed with newcomers Marcus Nilson and Alexandre Daigle to play major roles in last night’s contest against the visiting Airdrie T-Men. Coming off a four goal performance at Victoria which reignited a previously stagnant offense, the lineup changes threatened to derail any momentum the Aviators had threatened to recapture.

After six minutes of play, when the T-Men had jumped out to a 2-0 lead behind a short-handed goal from Sami Kapanen and a Martin Erat tally five minutes later, the dismantling of the Aviators looked to have taken an unexpectedly sudden and defining toll. But the fast start from the T-Men would soon subside, and when Brian Willsie scored his first goal of the year at 17:44 of the first, San Diego had cut the lead in half going into intermission.

The second period would see a continuation of events as they were at the end of the first. San Diego had asserted control of the game, maintain most of the possession, stringing together passes and outshooting the visiting team. Goals from Taylor Pyatt and Bryan Smolinski were the product, giving the Aviators their first lead of the game at 3-2 before the second intermission.

A power-play goal from the T-Men’s Shaen Donovan, his fifteenth of the season, tied the game early in the third, but the tide of the game continued in the Aviator’s favor. San Diego eventually broke though with a game-winner from captain Chris Drury, his fifteenth of the season, at 12:58 of the period. Sean Burke would hold down the fort on defense for his fourth victory of the season, pushing the Aviators back over .500 for the season.

Behind the victory was the unexpectedly solid play from the team’s new lead line. Throughtout the season, Wes Walz had centered a lead line with Bryan Smolinski and Chris Drury on his wingers, but with Walz gone Farley has decided to play with a trio of forwards who will be less aggressive when matching-up with the opposition’s top line.

Dave Scatchard, centering Taylor Pyatt and Matt Pettinger, saw over twenty minutes matching-up against the T-Men’s best offering, posting an even rating while getting the third goal of the year from Taylor Pyatt. For Pyatt, it was a return to a regular roll that he had lost a month ago. For Pettinger, it was the first regular action he’d seen all season.

The matchups have dictated which lines will be used, says coach Farley.

“We have good players but limited options,” he said. “I want to get our scorers in the best situations possible. The other guys are going to be asked to hold down the fort, so to speak. If we can break even with the other lines – the lines where we’re not playing that aggressive – I like our chances.”

Chris Drury and Bryan Smolinski were teamed with Alexandre Daigle to form the one line that seemed willing to try and score goals. Their efforts led to two tallies on the night – Drury’s, and Smolinski’s twelfth of the season.

Aviator Mid-Season Dismantling Begins in Earnest with Trade of Walz to Baffin Isle

As the Aviators prepare to host the Airdrie T-Men with the hope of regaining some momentum and extending their 4-3 win over Victoria into a winning streak, the team announced that center Wes Walz, with the team for the last season after his acquisition from the Guelph Reapers, has been traded to the Baffin Isle Rovers. In return for Walz and cash, the Aviators will receive a late second round draft pick and forward Marcus Nilson.

Recently having returned to the Aviator lineup from an injury, center Wes Walz has played 40 games for San Diego in RHL16, posting 14 goals, 11 assists, and a team-best +12 rating during 22.9 minutes per game. He has centered a line with Bryan Smolinski and Chris Drury that has been matched-up against the opposition’s lead scoring line.

Marcus Nilson has played sparingly for the Rovers, appearing in only 26 games, yet to score a goal. He has four assists and a -4 rating in just under ten minutes per night in ice time.

The trade of Walz undoubtedly signals the start of the seasonal dismantling of an Aviator team which is still looking to rebuild its prospect and draft pick resources. As the trade deadline approaches, other Aviators – Dave Scatchard and Brent Sopel, to name two – are expected to be moved.

Weinhandl Headed to Seattle

Matthias Weinhandl, acquired in the preseason from the Cleveland Falcons, has been traded to the Seattle Crystals, Aviator sources have confirmed. What the Aviators received in return was not disclosed.

Weinhandl had been a steady third/fourth line contributor for the Aviators throughout RHL16, but with the acquisition of Alexander Daigle had seen his role in the lineup potentially compromised. In the last year of a deal which will lead him to restricted free agency as season’s end, Weinhandl had been shopped around the league for some time in what was speculated to be a minor cost-cutting move.

In 44 games for the Aviators, the Swedish winger had five goals and nine assists, averaging 14 minutes per night. He moves on to the Seattle Crystals, the current leaders of the Calder Division, where he is expected to be mixed in between the third and fourth lines.

Aviators Fortunate in Win at Victoria

The Cougars defense was in full effect, limiting the Aviators to fourteen shots on goal in over sixty minutes of play. But one cog in the defense, goaltender Martin Brodeur, failed, and San Diego escaped Victoria with a 4-3 victory.

The four goals scored doubled the team’s output over the preceding four games, though it was difficult to the team to be too excited about an apparently improved offense give the lack of shots put on net. The Aviators found themselves repeated unable to establish possession in the Cougars’ end, having most of their time with the puck spent trying to build-up an attack. Repeatedly, San Diego saw their efforts thwarted by the persistent forecheck of Victoria, leading to a 34-14 shot disparity.

Brian Leetch was the first beneficiary of the Cougar pressure, scoring the first goal of the game – against his old team – at 13:06 of the first. Chris Drury quickly responded with his fourteenth goal of the season, an unassisted tally at 16:10.

The Cougars used second period goals from Vladimir Orszagh and Mark Eaton to build a lead that stood at one at intermission thanks to Aviator Martin Straka’s seventh goal in between. Straka, however, would leave the game shortly after his goal with concussion-like symptoms resulting from a collision with Cougar Mike Rathje.

At 7:05 of the third, newly healthy Wes Walz tied Drury for the team scoring lead with his fourteenth goal, another unassisted tally. The game knotted at three, the teams skated for the next thirteen minutes without a score.

In overtime, Bryan Smolinski’s eleventh of the season gave the Aviators a much needed two points. San Diego is now back at .500, and with twenty-one games left to play, the team looks assured of a playoff spot. The challenge is regaining some of the form displayed over the preceding month where the team had climbed as high as fifth in the conference table.

For his part, head coach Richard Farley saw little in the Victoria game that led him to believe that resurgence was impending.

“This was a fluke win,” Farley said. “We’ll take it. Other teams have gotten fluke wins against us. We caught Brodeur on a bad night. It would be disrespectful to the Cougars to say otherwise.”

And though he did not become disrespectful when asked, Farley was questioned by the Victoria media regarding comments Cougar owner Daniel Robitaille – the former Director of Scouting for the Aviators – made last week regarding Aviator ownership. Robitaille said, in response to rumors of a Cougar relocation:

“The local Victoria media have it totally wrong: it is not true the team will move to the San Francisco/Bay Area due to local pressure over there caused by the messy ownership situation with the Aviators; my understanding is the Aviators will be in the Bay Area
for RHL17, not us. But a San Francisco — San Jose rivalry between our two teams would have been nice…hummm…”

In response, Farley noted that the rivalry was unavoidable.

“Daniel seems intent on establishing some kind of rivalry with us, and I suppose that’s natural. We have established a long history with each other, alternating as partners, as rivals, as competitors. Daniel has won the highest honors in this league, so I don’t have any room to rebuke his comments. No, I do not feel the Aviator ownership situation is messy. I would say, in historical context, the Aviator ownership situation has been very good.”

Then, in an apparent allusion to the now defunct Victoria Bees, Farley said:

“The Aviators have been in the league for twelve straight years, in the same location up to this point. We haven’t hopped around our city or the west coast. We haven’t changed our name from the Aviators.

“I don’t think we’re messy in the slightest.”

FB and New Rules

The rules list is discussing various changes for the RHL17 season, the most interesting regarding changes to the free agent auction which would bing back holdouts as well as make the bidding on unrestricted free agents slightly more complex by instituting (essentially) higher minimum bids at the onset of the auction. I support these concepts, but the implementation – something I was inclined to not think too much about before – is going in a totally wrong direction.

The new rules being discussed will have a player’s minimum allowed bid be a function of FB. Anytime somebody sees FB referenced, warning bells should go off in their head. FB has been an anachronism since the disk project elected to move away from assigning S+ as a strict goals-per-game measure. This change happened a few seasons ago.

It used to be that somebody who scored 10 goals per 82 games was an automatic 5 S+. A 6 S+ would be at just below 20 goals per 82 (if I remember correctly). I can’t recall the other levels off the top of my head, but S+ used to be a direct reflection of a player’s NHL numbers.

Now S+ is being used to augment issues encountered in testing. When a player isn’t performing as he should based on the shooting ratings he is given, the disk team tweaks S+ to create a more realistic performance in testing. Two disks ago, Daymond Langkow got an 11 S+ when he scored in the mid-20s (goals) per 82 games.

The problem: FB pretty heavily factors in S+ into creating its meta rating, and since S+ has become a spurious reflection of a player’s skillset, FB has been compromised. Here’s one good example from the next set of ratings:

Connolly C 121 30000 18:00 32/13 56/12/9/22 444 3220 0002 18 19 329 N

Connolly has an FB that’s in line with an all-star caliber player, but we know he is not at this level. Why is his FB this high? He was given a 13 S+, a number incongruous with his 32 and 56 primary shooting numbers.

We need to use something other than FB. My suggestion is to use the player’s actual demand. Why would we use demands to reflect a player’s inclinations before his contract expires and then abandon that tool when a player’s reflection of his own value is just as important?

The counterargument to this – one I do not buy into but will entertain: Demands don’t work that well. FB doesn’t work that well, either. I would see this as an opportunity to tweak demand generation, something we should be doing anyway. Demands are a great tool but can still move forward, adding more granularity to how peers are determined and developing better ways or avoiding the outlying demand numbers created by anomalous greed plus peer situations.

I’m just not sure why people keep looking at FB.

Aviator Offensive Struggles Continue Against Saskatoon, Kansas City

The Aviators are back below .500 after a loss at Saskatoon and a tie versus Kansas City, but more alarming than their recent dip in the standings is the continued lack of offense. After a 4-0 loss to the Funboys and a 1-1 tie against the Monarchs, the Aviators are averaging 0.5 goals per game over their last four contests.

Head coach Richard Farley has reached an uncommon level of candor regarding the problem.

“I don’t know what’s going on,” he said after last night’s tie against the Monarchs. “It’s not just good goaltending or not finding the net. Shots are down. Opportunities are down. We need a change in approach.”

This slump comes amidst the now common midseason refrain bemoaning the inevitable Aviator sell-off as the team tries to trade expendable resources, save salary, and stock up on prospect and draft pick resources. It’s a strategy Farley does not deny.

“Anybody who thinks we’re legitimate contenders right now is fooling themselves,” Farley explained. “In light of this, we are obligated to try to improve our team for the future, be that future tomorrow or next season.”

If a trade-off happens, the offensive troubles will be more difficult to solve. For now, expect the Aviators to play more aggressively with their second and third lines while keeping the Smolinski-Walz-Drury line matched-up against their opponent’s best line, trying to limit the opportunities of their competition’s best players. If that does not work, look for Drury to move into a scoring role, allowing the second and third lines to play even more aggressively.

Daigle Acquired to Shore-Up Offense

The San Diego Aviators acquired winger Alexander Daigle from the Indianapolis 500s for Mathieu Dandenault.

The two teams also swapped draft picks, with the 500s moving-up one round in the draft.

Daigle had seven goals and three assists for the 500s, two of the goals coming shorthanded. His acquisition helps an Aviator offense that has ceased producing over the last two games. Daigle will replace the recently re-injured Pierre Dagenais in the lineup.

Dandenault had one goal and three assists in 34 games between San Diego and the Guelph Reapers. He had been relegated to healthy scratch status before defenseman Tomas Zizka’s injury. He goes to Indianapolis to provide depth on defense.

Aviators Roll Into All-Star Break In Need of Rest

Dropping a decision to a team with the talent of the Edmonton Eagles would be nothing to fret for a retooling team like the Aviators, but good performances throughout the first half of RHL16 and the struggles of the Eagles make San Diego’s recent 2-0 loss to Edmonton troubling.

Two late goals by the visiting Eagles proved to be the margin of victory in an otherwise close game, but the sudden lack of offense from the Aviators has team officials worried. Whereas San Diego has been able to consistently put three goals per game on the board throughout the season, the Aviators have been held to one goal in two games in consecutive losses. While goaltenders Sean Burke and Marty Turco each put up good performances in losing efforts, San Diego’s most reliable trait – goal scoring – has abandoned them.

Is this loss temporary, or are the Aviators entering a offense-deprived swoon?

One factor has been injuries, the Aviators entering their first stretch of major absences this season. At various times during the last five games, Wes Walz, Pierre Dagenais, Martin Straka, Derek Armstrong, Michael Nylander, Tomas Zizka, and Shaonne Morrisonn have missed time. Coming out of the All-Star break, only Dagenais and Zizka continue to be absent. For tonight’s game at Saskatoon, the Aviators will be as close to full-strength as they have been in a month.

The improvement in team health could not come at a better time. Though it is becoming more apparent that the top nine teams in the Howe are securing playoff spots, the Aviators still have ambitions toward a first round bye. Losing to the Eagles, the Aviators now sit ninth in the Hower Conference, tied in points with the Eagles though losing out on the wins tiebreaker.

Chris Drury – RHL All-Star

Aviator right wing and co-captain Chris Drury was named as a reserve to the Howe Conference All-Star team for the RHL16 game. He was the only San Diego player bestowed with such honors.

Drury leads Aviator players in all major categories and was the clear choice as San Diego’s representative on the All-Star team. In 36 games, Drury has 13 goals and 15 assists, both team-highs. His 25.1 minutes played per game is tops amongst Aviator forwards.

Aviators Lose in Airdrie

One of the more disapointing performances of the year saw the Aviators dominated by their host T-Men in a 3-1 loss last night. San Diego was outshot 34-17 and were never able to maintain control of play, having trouble stringing together passes. The line of Derek Armstrong, Pierre Dagenais and Martin Straka – formed from two recent returnees from injury – was -2 on the night, effectively being the difference between competing and yielding.

“We need to move on as soon as possible,” head coach Richard Farley said after the game. “This was not a good effort. I don’t want to dwell on it. It’s just one of those things where we need to look forward to the next game.”

The game started well for San Diego, controlling the action from the opening face off and building to a Brad Isbister goal at 9:03 of the first. For Isbister, it was his fifth goal in a season that has seen him start to rebuild a career spent adrift in recent seasons.

From that goal forward, however, the T-Men controlled the game. Martin Erat tied the score before the first period was out, and Matthew Lombardi and Shaen Donovan added goals in each of the second and third periods to give Airdrie the 3-1 win. Trying to even the score in the third, San Diego was only able to muster five shots on net.

“We had no chemistry tonight,” defenseman Mathieu Schneider said, “It was just one of those nights. But, I guess we’ve been having a few of these lately.”

San Diego has also lost recent contests at the Roadkill and in Kansas City.

Last night was the first game for defenseman Cory Sarich, acquired earlier from Saskatoon in a trade which saw teams exchange first round picks. Sarich played seventeen minutes with a -1 rating.

Life Remains Busy

Returning to San Diego certainly hasn’t given me much time to write on the blog. My days are filled with job interviews, time at the theater, and catching-up with friends who I’ve missed so much. The car is still in Cuyama, making the time spent between activities a little harder to manage. I’ve been able to get a lot of reading done, a lot of writing done, but things involving an internet connection have been hard to accomplish. Even getting lines in to Jean have been a trial for me (especially with Andy being pretty active with trading of late).

I’m finally settling into a groove in San Diego and feel as if I never left. The living situation I’m in has turned out well. I took a place with a bunch of students for the rest of this school year, and they have been a blast. I’m working about 35 hours per week at the theaters, and while that pays the bills, not having a regular job – something which will allow me to start paying bills – is troublesome. I suppose that will just take time.

This site continues to be getting decent traffic. I have no idea why. Nothing I”m writing here is that accessible. But, I hope to be able to maintain some stream of game reports and Aviator-related news. That stuff isn’t glamorous to the world at large, but it is what the site is about.

NFL Conference Championship Game Predictions

Last week was not god for me and my NFL predictions. After a respectable 3-1 record in the wild card round, I was 1-3 last weekend, a common tally as the AFC saw both road teams win while the NFC’s top seed (Chicago) let the Seahawks take them to overtime. This leaves us with conference championship match-ups which are practically pick ‘ems, as evidenced by the spread on each game.

NFC: New Orleans at Chicago (-3)

I’m having difficulty seeing the argument for the Bears. True, they have home field, but they have not done much with it in their last two home games, a Week 17 loss to the Packers and last week’s narrow escape against the Seahawks. On the other hand, the Saints have had no problems going on the road and winning big games, and they’re coming off an impressive win against an Eagle team that was better than most people realized. Had Andy Reid given Brian Westbrook the ball more, we might have a different match-up here.

As is, the Bears defense will be dealing with Sean Payton, a match-up I don’t like for a team that has struggled to stop their opponents of late. There have been many times this season where I felt Payton won the game before the teams stepped on the field: the Saints’ home opener against the Falcons, their trip to Dallas, and their late-season tripe to New York to play the Giants. I’m incredibly impressed every time I watch his team play, and I believe he will also be this game’s star. The only questions I have are whether the Saint players are up to the task and whether the Bear defense will start clicking.

The Saint players have yet to respond to any challenge this season, and there are so many parts involved in their offense that it would take a failure on multiple levels to debilitate their plans. The Bears defense, however, has had trouble keeping points off the board.

New Orleans 27, Chicago 17

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AFC: New England at Indianapolis (-3)

I can’t come up with clear match-ups and advantages from this game. On offense, each team has the ability to accomplish what they need to do to win the game. Each defense will have to be opportunistic to counter this. New England’s been able to force Manning into turnovers in previous playoff games, but the Colts have shown an ability to overcome that in this year’s previous playoff games. I just can’t see this game not being close.

But as much as I want to pick the Colts – and I do, I think they’ll want it more – I’m going to have to go with the Pats, and not because of any Brady-over-Manning, Belichek-owns-Peyton voodoo. If the game is going to be as close as I think it will, the New England special teams will create advantages that poor Colt special teams will not be able to reverse. And New England’s defense is better than the Colts’. They will be more likely to come up with a stop when needed, force a turnover, or hold Indy to a field goal. And if the game is going to come down to turnovers, I this New England is more likely to come up on the right side of that ledger.

And I really want the Colts to win. When New England beats them, the storylines we’ll have to put up with will be excruciating. I don’t want to hear about Manning not doing it. I don’t want to hear more about Tom Brady. I don’t want to hear the Patriots complain that they weren’t getting respect before the game. I don’t want the irrational Manning-haters to have more ammunition.

New England 31, Indianapolis 28

Burke Leads Depleted Aviators to Back-to-Back Ties

The San Diego Aviators are going through another stretch of injury-related hardships, having played their last two games without two of their top six forwards. This is nothing new to a squad which was plagued by missed games in RHL15 and continues to struggle with players who seem prone to injury. To this point in RHL16, San Diego had been fortunate in avoiding major injuries, but games against Winnipeg and Washington would be the team’s first test under adverse conditions.

In hosting the Freeze on Day 74, San Diego coach Richard Farley was closely watched regarding which goalie he’d put in net. Marty Turco was still obstensibly the team’s starter, while Sean Burke had been asserting himself over the preceding three weeks as the best goaltender on the team. Farley elected to start Burke for the sixth time in nine games, all but naming him the team’s new starting goaltender.

Like the Aviators, the Freeze had fought their way to the middle of the Howe Conference pack behind a steady offense and prayer on defense. Against a depleted San Diego team, this stood to be a good combination, as the Aviators were unlikely to score many goals. San Diego planned on relying on their trap to limit quality opportunities, a tactic they’ve used to great success with Burke in the net.

Winnipeg’s Robert Lang, an underappreciated Forward of the Year candidate, tallied an unassisted goal at 12:22 of the first to give the Freeze a 1-0 lead. San Diego held to their strategy and, despite being outshot 24-12 of the first two periods, tied the game on Mathieu Schneider’s seventh goal, 1:48 before the second intermission.

Winnipeg’s Tuomo Ruutu knotched his fifteen goal at 8:56 of the third, forcing the Aviators to chance their game plan and go on the offensive. They would tie the game five minutes later, getting offense from an unexpected source. The salary-offsetting part of the Shane Doan deal, Dave Scatchard, scored his second goal as an Aviator, a tally that would prove to be the game-tying goal.

The star of the night, to nobody’s surprise, was Sean Burke, who stopped thirty-three shots on the night and allowed the Aviators to play conservatively, adjusting to their injuries. Chris Drury was the offensive star of the night, assisting on both Aviator goals. And contributing to the San Diego injury problems, rookie defenseman Tomas Zizka left the game in the second period, complaining of pain in his lower back. After the game, Zizka’s condition remained undiagnosed, though team physicians are not optimistic he will return to the lineup soon.

FINAL SCORE: San Diego 2, Winnipeg 2

Given one night to fly cross-country for their game against the Defiance, the Aviators were not able to nurse any of their players back to health, though there was some good news on the injury front. Both Derek Armstrong and Pierre Dagenais were expected to return after the Washington game, provided they continued responding favorably to treatment. Though injuries would force the Aviators to continue their conservative approach, it would be the last game coach Farley’s hands would be completely tied.

Again speaking to a resolution in the goaltending controversy, Sean Burke got the start aginst Washington. Farley would say, after the Winnipeg game, the he decided which goaltender to start “based on what we’re trying to do in that particular game.

“Sean has proven himself in certain areas. Marty has shown proficiency in others. Based on what we’re trying to do on a given night, a different goaltender could start.”

Which begs the question: what things has Marty Turco been more proficient at? For now, it appears Sean Burke is the new starting goaltender, whether Farley admits it or not.

In Washington, Burke gave Farley more evidence to back his decision, though the beginning of the game was ominous.

The Defiance’s Ales Kotalik scored his eighth goal of the season 2:53 into the first, giving Washington an early lead and putting San Diego in a precarious position. Another goal, and the Aviators would have to abandon their game plan and try to take advantage of their limited offensive capabilities.

But San Diego clamped down and held the game scoreless to the first intermission. Then, shortly after the teams hit the ice for the second, the Aviators got a contribution from an unexpected source.

Though Coach Farley would rather not have to use him, Taylor Pyatt got a regular shift because of the Aviator injury problems. He finally rewarded his coach, scoring his second goal of the season at the 1:00 mark of the second, tying the game and allowing the Aviators to stick to their conservative plans.

And although the Aviators had trouble gaining control of the puck for any extended period of time, their plan payed off when Mathieu Schnedier intercepted an attempted clear from the Defiance zone and slapped home his eighth goal of the year. For Schneider, who struggled through the first quarter of the season for his new team, it was his eighth goal of the year and his second in as many games.

Washignton chased the one goal deficit for twenty minutes before Chris Phillips ninth goal of the season tied the game half way through the third period. The Aviators made little attempt to regain their lead, putting only three shots on net in the third and only one in overtime. The game would end in another 2-2 tie, San Diego surviving with another tie.

FINAL SCORE: San Diego 2, Washington 2

It was another great night for Sean Burke, stopping thirty-one of thirty-three shots to get the tie. His record went to 3-1-2 with a .945 save percentage and a 1.81 RATE. Still, after the game, Farley was non-commital about Burke’s role as the starting netminder.

“I anticipate Marty will start the next game,” said Farley of the Aviator’s Day 79 game at Airdrie. “That might be tipping my hand a little bit about how I want to play that game, but I also don’t want my player to have to deal with questions for the next three days.

“I know everybody wants to crown Sean, and he deserves a lot of credit. But I don’t want anybody to think that the contributions of anybody else on this team should be overshadowed.”

One potentially overshadowed Aviator pointed out by Farley was Mathieu Schnedier.

“I don’t know if you all have seen it, but Schneide rhas been great,” Farley said of his number one defenseman. “Mathieu has stepped up right when we needed it. He’s playing huge minutes for us, and he’s scoring goals. I don’t know what else to say. His play speaks for itself.”

With Drury and Schneider stepping up, Burke has joined the tryiad of lead Aviators, replacing the tryad’s member from whom he was traded. As the Aviators continue to compete in the middle of the Howe Conference, how ably they are able to fight for a first round playoff bye will be dictated by how this new tryad leads the team.

The First Bad Thign to Happen Since Coming Back to San Diego

Last night, my laptop died.

I was laying in bed with my headphones on watching a documentary about Stanley Kubrick when the machine locked-up. After waiting about five minutes to see if it was merely a Windows-mandated break time, I tried rebooting the machine. I got an “UNAVAILABLE_BOOT_VOLUME” error.

So it’s not accurate to say the laptop is dead, but it’s in ICU, in serious condition until I can diagnose what, exactly went wrong. The scary part is that no new software or hardware was being installed. It might be a little difficult to diagnose.

All this happens as:

• I get back into town and threaten to have time to write to the blog.
• I wrote a chapter of a manuscript last night but hadn’t backed it up to any other source.
• I almost bought a MacBook from the campus bookstore. They’d marked them down to $700.

So posts will still have a little less frequency than I might otherwise want.

Aviator Relocation to San Diego Will Not Happen, Says Farley

San Francisco, CA – San Diego Aviator Owner Richard Farley said the team is staying put.

In San Francisco. Come RHL17.

The RHL’s Aviators, who closed their offices in San Diego last month in preparation for a relocation to San Francisco, had been rumored to be looking for an escape from their deal with Marin County. On Friday, Farley quieted all such speculation.

“The speculation comes from some personal decisions I’ve made,” Farley explained. “Those personal decisions will not affect this relocation. The Aviators will play in San Francisco next season.”

One of the personal decisions Farley alludes to was his keeping a San Diego residence rather than moving to San Francisco, as he had intimate he would do. Farley would not comment on the issue.

Rovers Have Made the Jump to WordPress

I don’t think he’s yet publicized this, but Steve Stringer has moved the Rover Report from Blogger to WordPress. The new URL for all thing roving is:

http://roverreport.wordpress.com/

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Predictions

Last week, I went 3-1 straight-up, with ony Tony Romo preventing a perfect week. Against the spread, I was also 3-1. The Cowboys overed, but the Eagles did not.

Here are my thoughts and predictions for the final eight:

VISITOR	HOME	STRAIGHT-UP	SPREAD
Indianapolis	Baltimore (-3.5)	Ravens	Ravens
Indianapolis has traditionally struggled against the 3-4 scheme, and on Saturday they face on of the best in the league. While many have been saying that the Colts offense showed signs of problems last week against Kansas City, that offense was decidedly not trying to do too much. Manning and Moore kept everything close to the vest, knowing they didn’t need to turn many pages in the playbook to beat the Chiefs. Regardless, it’s difficult to see the Colts being able to put everything together, on the road, after the last month they’ve had. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if they did it, but three-and-a-half points, the bye week, and my believe that Balitmore is the league’s best team has me picking the Ravens across the board.
Philadelphia	New Orleans (-4.5)	Eagles	Eagles
This pick is as much me staying with the scenario I defined at the beginning of the playoffs, seeing the Eagles as the better team after Week #17. But the Eagles were decidedly unimpressive against a Giants team I’ve never liked, and they will not get as many chanced to win the game against a Sean Payton coached team. But if the Eagles play their best game, I like think they are the better team, and I can’t pick against them with those ideas in mind. The close game against the Giants might actually fuel them to be focused against the Saints. As for New Orleans, their best chance to win will come if Payton outschemes his counterpart, just as he did against Atlanta (Week #3), Dallas and New York in the regular season. That the Eagles have already played the Saints makes that scenario less-likely.
Seattle	Chicago (-8.5)	Bears	Bears
In the Saints-Eagles prediction, I talked about how sticking to my preconceptions of how the playoffs would play out. In that vision, I have the Cowboys beating the Bears at this point. That’s how little I think of Chicago. But their opponents, though they might be putting something together, I think less of. I don’t see the Seahawks being able to score, even as the Bear defense becomes vulnerable. The Bears offense only needs to put up 17, and they should be able to get that on field position alone. I’m picking Chicago to get more and cover, but I’m not looking forward to watching the tape of this one.
New England	San Diego (-4.5)	Chargers	Chargers
This is the best divisional round match-up I can remember since the mid-nineties when Brett Favre would have to lead his Packer team into one of San Francisco or Dallas to make it to the N.F.C. Championship Game. The deciding factor for me and my pick is the memory of what the Chargers did to New England last year, in Foxboro, to snap their home winning streak. They destroyed the Patriots, and while a regular season game that long ago shouldn’t matter, it is a factor here where Patroit mystique is a tangible part of their ability to get an advantage before the first snap. That advantage: the opponent knowing that New England may have won this game in the filroom, on the practice field, before the two teams ever step between the lines. They’ll have no such advantage against a Charger team which will remember that game in Foxboro. San Diego is the more talented team in the league, and they will show it on Sunday.

MLS, Galaxy Land David Beckham

When it makes the front page of ESPN.com, you can be pretty sure it’s a big story. And so it was that Major League Soccer (MLS) landed it’s first big fish, possibly the league’s last gasp effort to gain prominence in the U.S.’s sports market.

Months of speculation about his future ended today with the announcement that David Beckham will be moving across the Atlantic after Real Madrid’s season ends. He will join the Los Angeles Galaxy at a per annum of $50 million for five seasons. MLS lands the biggest start it has ever had, though they had to restructure its salary cap to do it.

Real Madrid’s David Beckham will play for the MLS’s Los Angeles Galaxy after his last season in La Liga. The price tag: $250 million over five years.

This move has been hotly debated by Beckham-followers and MLS-backers, most not seeing the logic behind the move. For Beckham, yes, it does make sense, both financially and professionally. And I say professionally not in reference to his on-field aspirations, whatever they may be. Having little chance of contirbuting to a top Eurpoean club team or his national team at any point in the future, soccer’s main utility in his professional life will be facilitating his other, off-field interests.

He’s capped how much he can get from his European marketing. The U.S. market is the last frontier. It may represent the last major challenge of his soccer career. To become a star in the U.S. market would be a billion dollar venture and ensure a certain level of immortality. He could become the player who finally made soccer as big in the U.S. as it is around the world. And as flightly and improbably as that scenario seems, it is a possibility.

For a few reasons, I don’t think the move will work for him. First, he’s not the type of player who is going to put up enough highlights to keep himself in the U.S. sports media sportlight after this initial media surge ends. He doesn’t score goals, and though he is still proficient in setting up goals, that’s an art that is yet to be embraced by mainstream U.S. soccer fans. While an American can appreciate a dramatic Clint Dempsey run in a World Cup match, anything more subtle is difficult to sell. I can’t envision Trey Wingo screaming “And the cross!” in many future SportsCenter reports.

Secondly, Los Angeles is a terrible market for him. I know that sounds stange. Tinseltown and Becks not a fit? No. It’s a horrible fit. The cliched description of L.A. not being a sports town – that there’s too much to do in L.A. to bother with sports – has a strong ring of truth in it. Are there sports fans in L.A.? Absolutely. Per capita interest in sports, the Angelino is just not as much of a sports fan (let alone a soccer fan) as fans in otehr cities. Beckham will be forgetten by the casual soccer fan. But then again, this move isn’t about the soccer fan. At least, not for Beckham. It’s about the Los Angeles-lifestyle, the opportunities: Hollywood.

So the Becks-LA connection might seem to fit because Beckham and the Hollywood jet-set have gone hand-and-hand as he’s promoted himself, but the Los Angeles Galaxy are decidedly not Hollywood. Los Angeles is the most successful team in MLS because of the large, working-class, Hispanic population in the city. This is not David Beckham’s target demographic. And Los Angeles doesn’t need Beckham to succeed. The population and media which support the team are going to be more traditional soccer enthusiasts, less Access Hollywood. The Los Angeles fans have always been more appreciative of the Latin American style of play – the ability to win individual battles and play with heart. Are these fans going to appreciate Beckham’s play? He will be highly scrutinized, criticized.

It’s not as good a fit as the New York market would have been. Even New England or D.C. would have been better than Los Angeles. He will be lost. Forgotten.

As the news has broken today, he main criticism of the deal is that Beckham is seen as past his prime. Clearly, he is no longer at his peak, and having been told his services are no longer as needed by his club and country tarishes his image as an elite player. But he is still a very good, though limited, player. A team which finds a fit for his abilities will have a world-class player. And on-the-pitch, Los Angeles can do this. Beckham, as a player, is harsh-criticized but still good. Very good. To get away from the continent and the scrutiny his image brought upon him should be a relief. The U.S. will never care enough to breakdown his game in such detail.

But the pricetag is enormous. MLS is committing a quarter-billion dollars over the next five seasons. Is this the last ditch effort of a league who had failed to capitalize on the momentum of either of the last three World Cups? The league has gone for the name and the image. Were they serious about the quality – which might be a better longterm strategy – it’s doubtful they would be making this acquisition. The league is trying to raise its profile.

And it has temporarily raised tha profile, as evidenced by the front page coverage this move’s received. They’re talking about this on all sports radio across the country. But this attention won’t last. America and its sports fans can’t possibly care that much about Beckham. Nobody is going to be more likely to show up to an MLS venue because of him.

If an increased profile in the American sports market was the goal, if would have been better to keep Clint Dempsey and spend the remaining $246 million promoting him. Clint Dempsey commericals! Concert tours!

Bekchma coming to the U.S. is a very interesting story. But best-case scenario, it’s a waste of money for MLS. Worst-case scenario: the league’s last gasp was an ill-advised one.

Catching Up With the Aviators: The Last Three Games

Day 69: Roadkill 5, Aviators 3

The Aviators took a four game winning streak into Waterloo on Day 69 only to see embattled goaltender Marty Turco give up three goals to the Roadkill on eleven first period shots. Though San Diego was able to close the gap to one by the end of the second period thanks to two Chris Drury goals, the Roadkill’s two early third period goals put the contest out of reach. Turco would end up saving twenty-eight of thrity-three shots, further fueling the goaltender controversy.

More disappointing than having their win streak snapped may have been the shoulder injury suffered by Derek Armstrong. Having to pick-up second line duties with Pierre Dagneais out of the lineup, Armstrong suffered a right shoulder contusion early in the third period and had to leave the game. Armstrong is expected to be out one-to-two weeks.

Day 71: Monarchs 2, Aviators 1

San Diego’s return to Kansas City was a disaster, losing to an inferior team, failing to put forth the effort they’d come to expect. More than having five goals put on you by a offensively-capable team, the Aviators loss to Kansas City was explicable only in reference to injuries, and barely explicable in that vein. The only bright spots were Sean Burke – who stopped twenty-nine of thirty-one shots – and Chris Drury – who scored his third goal in two games.

That the Aviators got outshot in the third period 18-7 was inexecusable. Kansas City is not a team that should be able to control a period like that. That statistic belies an explanation of the natural variance of hockey teams within a 66 game schedule.

This was Sean Burke’s first loss of the season, his record falling to 3-1-0. His save percentage remained preternatrually high .947 with a RATE of 1.56. With another impressive Burke performance on his RHL16 resume, speculation was that Farley would have him the Day 72 start when the Aviators hosted the Penetrators, altering the plan announced earlier in the week.

Day 72: Aviators 3, Penetrators 2

Ultimately, Farley decided to sart Turco against Yellowknife in what shaped-up as a make-or-break game for him. After getting torched against Waterloo, Turco stood to lose what claims he had to the starting job if he were unable to perform will at home against the Penetrators. Burke’s performances had become too good and too frequent to ignore.

Two first period goals from Geoff Sanderson allowed the Aviators to build an early lead and switch strategy, a tactic that has served them well in recent weeks (see the lop-sided shot numbers incurred as a result of switching to the trap early in games). After going into the first intermission with a 2-0 lead, San Diego would be outshot 17-1 in the second period yet keep this lead.

The barrage on net continued in the third, though Yellowknife finally broke through. Alex Tanguay cut the lead in half at 6:27, and Petr Sykora tied the game at 15:58. As if they’d toyed with their guests, the Aviators scored the game winning goal 1:35 later, center Dave Scatchard’s second goal of the season.

Turco was spectacular. With forty-five saves on forty-seven shots, Turco picked his season’s save percentage above the league average.

But the injury bug hit the Aviators again. Wes Walz, one of the top three players the Aviators have had all year, left the game in the second quarter with what had been diagnosed as an abdominal strain. He joins Derek Armstrong and Pierre Dagenais as top-6 forwards who will be out one-to-two more weeks.

Who do the Aviators play during that stretch?

Day 74: vs. Winnipeg
Day 76: at Washington
Day 79: at Airdrie
Day 80: vs. Edmonton

That the Aviators only play four games in this upcoming stretch is a blessing. How they’ll react remains to be seen.

Status Update – Definitely Filed Under “Life”

Here’s a stream of consciousness report of the last seven days:

As all of you know, I’d moved to San Francisco, but immediately after getting off State Route 101 and driving through the city, towards the marina (where I was staying), an incredible sense of foreboding came over me. After seven days in San Francisco trying to shake the negativity, I repacked my car and headed south realizing I never should have left San Diego. Shortly less than one week after arriving for my great adventure, I turned back the way I came on a Friday morning carrying a renewed confidence garnered from lessons learned.

It was a good idea: seeing what it would be like to live in another city. I had been curious as to whether twelve years in San Diego had defined me or if I was truly independent of the environment. Ultimately I decided it did not matter what the answer was. There was not happiness to be found in San Francisco. Perhaps at some point in the future I will try to relocate again, but I got answers to all my personal questions within one week’s time. I called an early end to the experiment and reveled in my decision to admit the mistake.

On the rid south my car broke down. It appears to be the timing belt, which could lead to major engine problems, but I don’t know for sure if this amateur diagnosis is correct. I broke down two miles outside New Cuyama, California, a town of around one hundred people. There’s only one garage with one mechanic, and the mechanic was not available. Complicating things, my cell phone didn’t get service in New Cuyama, and the only pay phone seemed broken. It wouldn’t take my coins. After an hour of roaming about the town looking for solutions, I was told the pay phone would make credit card calls, and I called my mother.

My mother lives in Riverside County, about three hours drive from New Cuyama. I knew she’d be at work and could be able to get online and get me some phone numbers, allowing me to explore some options. Unfortunately, my mother doesn’t take her phone in to work, so I had to wait until she clocked out. It was 3pm when I broke down, and she didn’t get my messages until 5pm. Once she listened to the messages, she hoped in her Jeep Cherokee and came to get me. I couldn’t ask for a better mother.

Since I was moving to San Francisco, I had packed all my possessions in the car. When she came and picked me up at the town bar after eight, we spend fifteen minutes unloading everything I had taken. Piles and piles of books and clothes. I’ve come to live light. We got back to my parents house shortly after midnight on Friday. The car stayed in New Cuyama. Four days later, I still have not been able to get word no what’s wrong.

For two days I made arrangements to return to San Diego. I called friends to set up a couch surfing network. I started responding to ads for rooms to let. I changed all my posted resume information. I went through all my belongings and pulled out the essentials. On Sunday night, I returned to La Jolla and began staying with friends – homeless, jobless, with half of my equity stuck in California’s Mayberry.

Emotionally, I was wrecked. I wasn’t exactly sane while staying in San Francisco, but my decision to return to San Diego had gotten my hopes up. I felt I was back on the right track and ready to reassert control over my life. Then the car broke down and that great adventure began. After the dust settled and I found myself couch surfing, I started to crack. If my two biggest problems didn’t get solved soon, I wasn’t going to last. I felt instable, fragile – every adjective a clinician would use to describe a committed subject in the moments before treatment.

Monday was the critical day. I emailed the house manager at the movie theater and told him I wanted to speak to him. Getting my job at the Landmark back was key – I love that job, even if it’s only a minimum wage gig. I started the full court press to get a room to rent, targeting one that I felt could crack on Monday. By the end of the day, I wanted to be able to turn the corner and be myself again.

The movie theater interview went well, even if it required a great deal of explanation to tell the house manager why I’d had a change of heart. He expressed his concerns with why I left and why he might not consider rehiring me. He had to lay these things out. He wasn’t going to give me an immediate answer. But being in the theater, talking to my friends allowed my spirits to rise, and when I left the theater an hour and a half later, I felt good about the job. I might not get it, but it wouldn’t be because of anything I did in my return interview.

From there, I went to see the room I’d targeted. It was a shared space – I’d be sharing the master bedroom with a female, senior Lit major – but it was also the cheapest, and until my car situation is settled, cheap is a prime value. I talked to my would-be roommate and started really liking the idea of living there. The house has four other interesting people, and while I may seem like somewhat of a curmudgeon in my posts, I love meeting new people. At the end of our talk she said she’d get back to me that night, as she had one other interview scheduled. “What can I do to be able to write you a check right now,” I asked. She went upstarts, called all the roommates who were not there and told me. “I told them I wanted you to live here, so it’s cool.” One problem solved, and solved to my liking.

I met up with my friend Kris, walked to the store, bought a 24 of Tecate ($1.59) and drank it as I walked through the park, celebrating by whatever modest means I could. Later that night, I went down to The Shack, the La Jolla bar at which my friends work. I missed everybody, and the stories I had to tell got me enough free beer to make me think there was an upside to being stranded in New Cuyama. But as if karma was winking at me, I got a call from a friend at the theater. It was 9pm, and they had seen the schedule for the upcoming week. “There’s a new name at the bottom.”

“Am I back?”

“I don’t know. They’re not saying anything officially.”

Less than one day after being back in San Diego, everything’s been affirmed. Maybe I should have never left, but now I don’t have to think about it anymore. We’re headed forward, putting the free spirit away for a little while.

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So, this is why Aviator News has not been updated in a while. I anticipate restarting major efforts later this week. I still have to go back to Riverside and pick up my things, the car situation is not resolved, I’m catching up with my social network and if my luck holds out I’ll be working again soon. All of these things will cut into blog time, and WHLN might end.

But if that’s the only negative to this relocation (other than the car), I’m coming out a winner.